An Empirical Analysis of the Demand for Imports in Three CARICOM Member Countries: An Application of the Bounds Test for Cointegration

This paper provides fresh estimates of income and price elasticities of import demand in Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago using a bounds test for cointegration. In addition, the paper also provides estimates of the consumption, investment, and exports elasticities of import demand. These latter elasticities were all found to be positive and statistically significant with values ranging from 0.16 to 0.55 in the long-run.     

The Valuation Effect of Accounting Standard 158 on Firms with High and Low Financial Risk

SFAS 158 mandated balance sheet disclosure of the funded status of firms’ Defined Benefit Pension Plan using the Projected Benefit Obligation (PBO) to estimate the pension liability. SFAS 158 caused a market phenomenon because the use of the PBO engendered dramatically higher estimates of pension liability and hence the perception of risk. Our work focuses on two aspects of this change in pension accounting: first, how will industry firms change their accounting strategy in light of the new rules, and second, how will firms’ stock prices be affected by the new allegedly better estimate of pension liability? Our research suggests that firms’ accounting strategies changed in that they use higher discount rates to estimate pension liability which offset the dramatic impact of using the PBO. In addition, we find that high financial risk firms’ tendencies to use higher discount rates increase with the firms’ leverage and decrease with liquidity. To test the market reaction we utilize standard event study methodology to investigate the effects of SFAS 158 on stock returns. Our findings suggest that firms with high (low) financial risk earn negative (positive) abnormal returns on and around relevant event dates preceding the implementation of SFAS 158.     

Small and Medium Enterprise Financing in Transition Economies

This paper studies the financing status of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in transition economies. Factors causing financing obstacles are indentified and further analyzed to determine their influence over financing patterns. Bank regulatory practices relevant to SMEs’ access to bank loans and their influence over loan structures are identified. This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by exploring the impact of specific bank regulatory practices on credit lending to SMEs in transition economies.     

Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets

Bank crises in emerging economies have been a feature of the recent global crisis, and their incidence has increased in the post-Bretton Woods era. This paper investigates the impact of financial globalization on the incidence of systemic bank crises in 20 emerging markets over the years 1976–2002 using measures of de facto and de jure financial openness. An increase in foreign debt liabilities contributes to an increase in the incidence of crises, but foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities have the opposite effect. A more liberal de jure capital regime lowers the incidence of banking crises, while a regime of fixed exchange rates increases their frequency. The results of the econometric analysis is consistent with the experience of East European and central Asian emerging markets, which attracted a relatively large proportion of capital flows in the form of debt in recent years and have been particularly hard hit by the global financial crisis.     

Inflation and Welfare in Latin America

This paper follows Bailey (J Polit Econ 64:93–110, 1956) and Lucas (Econometrica 68:247–274, 2000) and estimates the welfare cost of inflation for 17 Latin American economies. We use annual data, from 1955 to 2000, and recent advances in the field of applied econometrics to estimate the inflation rate elasticity of money demand and report significantly high and differential welfare cost estimates for these economies.     

The International Reserves Issue in the EMU

This paper examines the effects of the Economic and Monetary Union on demand for foreign reserves. The traditional theory on demand for international reserves assigns a pivotal role to imports. However, in a currency union part of imports are settled in the common currency, leaving no incentive for keeping foreign reserves. Moreover, the pooling of the demand for reserves in the currency union and an increasing role of a currency as an international reserve currency may also influence, among other things, the union demand for reserves. Based on estimated demand functions for reserves it is shown that the Economic and Monetary Union has reduced the demand for reserves substantially. It is argued that an enlargement with new member countries of the European Union will result in further savings of reserves. A simple calculation at the end of the paper illustrates the welfare gain associated with the reduced need of reserves in the Economic and Monetary Union.     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Induce Domestic Mergers?

This paper examines the impact of foreign firm entry on the industry consolidation process in a host country that operates through mergers and exits of incumbent firms. Using a three-stage oligopolistic model, the paper shows that foreign direct investment (FDI) may trigger consolidation via a merger since the approval of a domestic merger by the antitrust authority is more likely in the case a foreign firm enters via FDI and a firm’s incentive for a domestic merger is greater and that, in turn, the possibility to merge and become more efficient modifies the outcome of the game by making FDI compared to exports less likely.     

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